Online lecture 10: Retrospective modelling of epidemics using historical mortality data

Lecturer: Dr. Katarina Matthes, University of Zurich

Content:

The aim of this lecture is to provide an introduction to how mortality data can be used for retrospective modelling of an epidemic. The session will cover the concept of excess mortality, methods for analysing and visualizing spatial patterns of mortality to identify regional variations, and will show how to estimate the reproduction number (transmissibility) to understand epidemic disease spread.

Objectives:

• Introduction to the concept of excess mortality and methods for its application
• Introduction to methods for showing spatial patterns
• Presentation of the reproduction number (transmissibility) 

Recommended reading:

Matthes, K.L., Floris, J., Merzouki, A., Junker, C., Weitkunat, R., Rühli, F., Keiser, O., Staub, K., 2024. Spatial pattern of all cause excess mortality in Swiss districts during the pandemic years 1890, 1918 and 2020. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol 51, 100697. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SSTE.2024.100697

Matthes, K.L., Le Vu, M., Staub, K., 2025. Fertility dynamics through historical pandemics and COVID-19 in Switzerland, 1871–2022. Popul Stud (NY). https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2025.2462291

Mourits, R.J., Schalk, R., Meroño-Peñuela, A., Raad, J., Rijpma, A., van den Hout, B., Zijdeman, R.L., 2021. Retracing Hotbeds of the 1918–19 Influenza Pandemic. Spatial Differences in Seasonal Excess Mortality in the Netherlands. Hist Life Course Stud 10, 145–150. https://doi.org/10.51964/HLCS9584

Staub, K., Panczak, R., Matthes, K.L., Floris, J., Berlin, C., Junker, C., Weitkunat, R., Mamelund, S.E., Zwahlen, M., Riou, J., 2022. Historically High Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Switzerland, Sweden, and Spain. https://doi.org/10.7326/M21-3824 175, 523–532. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.7326/M21-3824

Suter, J., Devos, I., Matthes, K.L., Staub, K., 2024. The health and demographic impacts of the “Russian flu” pandemic in Switzerland in 1889/1890 and in the years thereafter. Epidemiol Infect 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268824001651

Ziegler, E., Matthes, K.L., Middelkamp, P.W., Schuenemann, V.J., Althaus, C.L., Rühli, F., Staub, K., 2025. Retrospective modelling of the disease and mortality burden of the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Zurich, Switzerland. Epidemics 50, 100813. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2025.100813.

You can find the presentation in .pdf here.