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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Paris:20251121T140000
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DTSTAMP:20260427T201156
CREATED:20251007T124731Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20251127T092352Z
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SUMMARY:Online lecture 10: Retrospective modelling of epidemics using historical mortality data
DESCRIPTION:Lecturer: Dr. Katarina Matthes\, University of Zurich \nContent: \nThe aim of this lecture is to provide an introduction to how mortality data can be used for retrospective modelling of an epidemic. The session will cover the concept of excess mortality\, methods for analysing and visualizing spatial patterns of mortality to identify regional variations\, and will show how to estimate the reproduction number (transmissibility) to understand epidemic disease spread. \nObjectives: \n\nIntroduction to the concept of excess mortality and methods for its application\nIntroduction to methods for showing spatial patterns\nPresentation of the reproduction number (transmissibility) \n\nRecommended reading: \nMatthes\, K.L.\, Floris\, J.\, Merzouki\, A.\, Junker\, C.\, Weitkunat\, R.\, Rühli\, F.\, Keiser\, O.\, Staub\, K.\, 2024. Spatial pattern of all cause excess mortality in Swiss districts during the pandemic years 1890\, 1918 and 2020. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol 51\, 100697. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SSTE.2024.100697 \nMatthes\, K.L.\, Le Vu\, M.\, Staub\, K.\, 2025. Fertility dynamics through historical pandemics and COVID-19 in Switzerland\, 1871–2022. Popul Stud (NY). https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2025.2462291 \nMourits\, R.J.\, Schalk\, R.\, Meroño-Peñuela\, A.\, Raad\, J.\, Rijpma\, A.\, van den Hout\, B.\, Zijdeman\, R.L.\, 2021. Retracing Hotbeds of the 1918–19 Influenza Pandemic. Spatial Differences in Seasonal Excess Mortality in the Netherlands. Hist Life Course Stud 10\, 145–150. https://doi.org/10.51964/HLCS9584 \nStaub\, K.\, Panczak\, R.\, Matthes\, K.L.\, Floris\, J.\, Berlin\, C.\, Junker\, C.\, Weitkunat\, R.\, Mamelund\, S.E.\, Zwahlen\, M.\, Riou\, J.\, 2022. Historically High Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Switzerland\, Sweden\, and Spain. https://doi.org/10.7326/M21-3824 175\, 523–532. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.7326/M21-3824 \nSuter\, J.\, Devos\, I.\, Matthes\, K.L.\, Staub\, K.\, 2024. The health and demographic impacts of the “Russian flu” pandemic in Switzerland in 1889/1890 and in the years thereafter. Epidemiol Infect 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268824001651 \nZiegler\, E.\, Matthes\, K.L.\, Middelkamp\, P.W.\, Schuenemann\, V.J.\, Althaus\, C.L.\, Rühli\, F.\, Staub\, K.\, 2025. Retrospective modelling of the disease and mortality burden of the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Zurich\, Switzerland. Epidemics 50\, 100813. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2025.100813. \nYou can find the presentation in .pdf here. \n\n 
URL:https://greatleap.eu/event/online-lecture-10-retrospective-modelling-of-epidemics-using-historical-mortality-data/
LOCATION:Zoom
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